Book Club – Origin of Failure to Fire – and Book Signing

In 2004, the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology division conducted a study on the threat that Man Portable Air Defense Systems a.k.a. MANPADS pose to the flying public. MANPADS are short range missiles that can be carried on the battlefield and fired by one or two man teams. They are manufactured by the People’s Republic of China, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States by the thousands.

While Western governments have tried to control the proliferation of MANPADS, intelligence agencies will tell you that almost every major terrorist organization has and used them. Between January 1975 and January 2021, there have been 40 documented attacks by terrorist organizations firing MANPADS at either a corporate jet, air cargo airplane or an airliner. Most experts believe it is not if, but when, a terrorist organization brings down an airliner with a MANPAD.

The DHS study went as far as determining what systems were on the market at the time that could counter these weapons that could easily be launched from a field or a rooftop near a major airport. Acquisition, installation and support costs were all part of the study in which BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman and United Technologies all participated. They determined that for a Boeing 737 carrying about 150 passengers, a directed infrared countermeasures system (DIRCMS) would add about $.53 per passenger in operating costs for a Dallas to New York flight.

During the discussion, Marc will cover the scope of the study, what happened since. This study was the inspiration for the plot of Failure to Fire.