I’m just a dumb old senior citizen watching the circus is our nation’s capital. Every day, Adam Schiff piously advises us that they has new evidence that further justifies impeachment of the president of the United States or that he is sending out subpoenas for more information. For 18 months Schiff told us there was real evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians. There was none so unless House investigators find evidence of a serious crime, to anyone who has read the Constitution, the impeachment effort will ultimately fail.
According to the Constitution, in order to indict or charge a sitting president, all that is needed is a simple majority of members to vote yes. Clearly, with Democrats holding 235 of the 434 seats in the House, Speaker Pelosi has the votes assuming they all vote yes.
Now comes the hard part. In order to gain a conviction that would remove President Trump from office, the Senate must vote to convict by a two-thirds majority. That means the Democrats need 66 votes. The Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, the Democrats 47 (including two independents – Bernie Sanders and Agnus King – who vote Democratic). Basic math says Senator Schumer needs to find 19 Republican Senators to vote for impeachment.
What are the chances of 19 Republican senators flipping? About as much as snowball will survive in hell.
So question one is why bother? Many will see it as another attack on the president because since the day after Trump was elected, the Democrats have focused on trying to discredit him at every turn and reduce the chances he will be re-elected instead of implementing their legislative agenda, whatever that is.
Whenever the impeachment process runs its course, the Democrats will be 0 for 2 in attempts to unseat the president. Failure one was running what amounted to an attempted coup with the now discredited Russia collusion story. It died in flames in the Mueller’s report and in his testimony in the house. Shortly, we may see indictments and trials of the perpetrators. Wouldn’t that be a new concept?
Failure two will be impeachment process. Now 0 and 2, whomever the Democratic candidate who will be facing an incumbent president whose style has rubbed a lot of us the wrong way but also has a list of solid accomplishments on his side of the ledger, e.g. a booming economy with historic low levels of unemployment and high levels of employment amongst minorities; redone trade deals; getting Nato nations meet their spend commitment of 2% GNP; defeat of ISIS; and so on.
What will the Democratic candidate have to tout other than he/she wants Trump out of office? Not much. They can’t attack his record of accomplishment because it will highlight their own failures.
This leads me to question two – what, if anything will it cost the Democratic party? Its current slate of prospective candidates are well left of center and not attractive to many the voters in the country.
The 2020 election could cost the Democrats the White House and make gains in the House.. It is way too early to tell, but right now, the Democrats have nothing positive to run on except their hate for Donald Trump.
Nancy Pelosi, what were you thinking?